ADAPTATION OF RURAL TOURISM OPERATORS TO UNCERTAINTIES: A CASE STUDY OF GUZHU VILLAGE IN ZHEJIANG PROVINCE UNDER THE SHOCK OF COVID-19
YU Shu-han1, FANG Yan-gang1,2, SUN Wang-tao3, LIU Jian-zhi1, YANG Yang1
1. School of Geographical Sciences, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Geographical Processes and Ecological Security in Changbai Mountains, Ministry of Education, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024, China; 3. Institute of Automation, Chinese Academic of Science. Beijing 100190, China
Abstract:Adaptability research is the scientific basis to deal with the impact of uncertainties and realize the sustainable development of tourism. This paper constructs a new adaptive analysis framework, combines the theory of sustainable livelihood and BP neural network method, and conducts a systematic adaptive study of Guzhu Village. The results are obtained as follows: 1) After the outbreak of Covid-19, rural tourism operators showed a significant trend of part-time employment, which mainly divided into four adaptation types: tourism promotion type, e-commerce type, worker-oriented type and subsistence type. 2) Household saving, place of domicile, human capital, homestead area and other factors are key factors affecting the adaptation outcomes of operators. 3) Exogenous factors such as Covid-19 epidemic and policy governance, as well as endogenous factors such as local characteristics, rational choice of tourism operators and scale interaction, are the main mechanisms of adaptation and evolution in Guzhu Village. Finally, the paper discusses corresponding policy suggestions based on the adaptative evolutionary path of different tourism operators.
余书涵, 房艳刚, 孙望涛, 刘建志, 杨阳. 乡村旅游经营户对不确定性的适应性研究——以新冠疫情冲击下浙江省顾渚村为例[J]. 人文地理, 2024, 39(6): 142-151.
YU Shu-han, FANG Yan-gang, SUN Wang-tao, LIU Jian-zhi, YANG Yang. ADAPTATION OF RURAL TOURISM OPERATORS TO UNCERTAINTIES: A CASE STUDY OF GUZHU VILLAGE IN ZHEJIANG PROVINCE UNDER THE SHOCK OF COVID-19. HUMAN GEOGRAPHY, 2024, 39(6): 142-151.
UNDP. Human Development Report 2021/2022: Uncertain Times, Unsettled Lives: Shaping Our Future in a Trans-Forming World[R/OL]. New York: UNDP, 2022: 19. https://hdr.undp.org/content/human-development-report-2021-22.
[2]
李磊, 刘红兰, 陶卓民, 等.新冠肺炎对旅游业的影响:研究进展与展望[J]. 人文地理, 2022, 37(5):32-41. [Li Lei, Liu Honglan, Tao Zhuomin, et al. The impact of Covid-19 on tourism industry: Research progress and pro-spects[J]. Human Geography, 2022, 37(5):32-41.]
[3]
房艳刚, 刘继生.基于多功能理论的中国乡村发展多元化探讨—— 超越“现代化”发展范式[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(2):257-270. [Fang Yangang, Liu Jisheng. Diversified agriculture and rural development in China based on multifunction theory: Beyond modernization paradigm[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2015, 70(2):257-270.]
[4]
魏小安, 付磊. 旅游业受“非典”影响情况分析及对几个相关问题的辨析[J]. 旅游学刊, 2003, 18(4):14-23. [Wei Xiao'an, Fu Lei. Analysis of tourism affected by SARS and analysis of several related problems[J]. Tourism Tribune, 2003, 18(4):14-23.]
[5]
李九全, 李开宇, 张艳芳.旅游危机事件与旅游业危机管理[J]. 人文地理, 2003, 18(6):35-39. [Li Jiuquan, Li Kaiyu, Zhang Yanfang. Crisis accidents and it's management in tourism[J]. Human Geography, 2003, 18(6):35-39.]
[6]
Fotiadis A, Polyzos S, Huan T C. The good, the bad and the ugly on Covid-19 tourism recovery[J]. Annals of Tourism Research, 2021, 87:103117. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2021.103117.
[7]
李锋, 孙根年. 基于旅游本底线法(TBLM)的旅游危机事件研究——以2003年“SARS”事件为例[J]. 人文地理, 2006, 21(4):102-105. [Li Feng, Sun Gennian. Research on tourism unexpected crisis on the basis of tourism background-line method: A case study of "SARS" event in 2003[J]. Human Geography, 2006, 21(4):102-105.]
[8]
陈楠, 乔光辉, 刘力.出境游客的旅游风险感知及旅游偏好关联研究——以北京游客为例[J]. 人文地理, 2009, 24(6):97-102. [Chen Nan, Qiao Guanghui, Liu Li. A study on the preferred travel behaviors of out-bound tourists based on perception of travel risks: Case on Beijing tourists[J]. Human Geography, 2009, 24(6):97-102.]
[9]
Ritchie B W, Jiang Y. A review of research on tourism risk, crisis and disaster management: Launching the annals of tourism research curated collection on tourism risk, crisis and disaster management [J]. Annals of Tourism Research, 2019, 79: 102812. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2019.102812.
[10]
刘雷, 史小强.新冠肺炎疫情背景下体育旅游消费行为影响机制: 基于S-O-R框架的MOA-TAM整合模型的实证分析[J]. 旅游学刊, 2021, 36(8):52-70. [Liu Lei, Shi Xiaoqiang. Research on the impact mechanism of sports tourism consumption behavior under the background of the normalization of COVID-19 prevention and control: Empirical analysis of MOA-TAM integration model based on S-O-R framework[J]. Tourism Tribune, 2021, 36(8):52-70.]
[11]
Zhang W, Williams A M, Li G, et al. Entrepreneurial responses to uncertainties during the covid-19 recovery: A longitudinal study of B&Bs in Zhangjiajie, China[J]. Tourism Management, 2022, 91:104525. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2022.104525.
[12]
陆林, 李磊, 侯颖.疫情危机下旅游地韧性与高质量发展[J]. 旅游学刊, 2022, 37(9):1-3. [Lu Lin, Li Lei, Hou Ying. Resilience of tourism destination and high-quality development under the pandemic crisis[J]. Tourism Tribune, 2022, 37(9):1-3.]
[13]
刘丽, 陆林, 陈浩.基于目的地形象理论的旅游危机管理——以中国四川地震为例[J]. 旅游学刊, 2009, 24(10):26-31. [Liu Li, Lu Lin, Chen Hao. Tourism crisis management based on the theory of destination image: A case study of Sichuan earthquake, China[J]. Tourism Tribune, 2009, 24(10):26-31.]
[14]
Gabriel-Campos E, Werner-Masters K, Cordova-Buiza F, et al. Community eco-tourism in Rural Peru: Resilience and adaptive capacities to the Covid-19 pandemic and climate change[J]. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 2021, 48(27):416-427.
[15]
Caballero-Morales S O. Innovation as recovery strategy for SMEs in emerging economies during the Covid-19 pandemic[J/OL]. Research in International Business and Finance, 2021, 57: 101396. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101396.
[16]
Smit B, Burton I, Klein R J T, et al. The science of adaptation: A framework for assessment[J]. Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, 1999, 4:199-213.
[17]
Engle N L. Adaptive capacity and its assessment[J]. Global Environmental Change, 2011, 21:647-656.
[18]
查尔斯·R·达尔文.物种起源[M]. 李闲标, 高慧, 译.北京:北京出版社, 2007:1-175. [Darwin C R. On the Origin of Species by Means of Natural Selection, or the Preservation of Favourd Races in the Struggle for Life[M]. Li Xianbiao, Gao Hui, trans. Beijing: Beijing Publishing House, 2007:1-175.]
[19]
Steward J H. Theory of Culture Change: The Methodology of Multilinear Evolution[M]. Urbana, USA: University of Illinois Press, 1972:36-42.
[20]
Holling C S. Understanding the complexity of economic, ecological, and social systems[J]. Ecosystems, 2001, 4:390-405.
[21]
Below T B, Mutabazi K D, Kirschke D, et al. Can farmers' adaptation to climate change be explained by socio-economic householdlevel variables? [J]. Global Environmental Change, 2012, 22(1):223-235.
[22]
Kuang F, Jin J, He R, et al. Influence of livelihood capital on adaptation strategies: Evidence from rural households in Wushen Banner, China [J]. Land Use Policy, 2019, 89:104228. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2019.104228.
[23]
陈佳, 杨新军, 温馨, 等.旅游发展背景下乡村适应性演化理论框架与实证[J]. 自然资源学报, 2020, 35(7):1586-1601. [Chen Jia, Yang Xinjun, Wen Xin, et al. The theoretical framework and demonstration of rural adaptive evolution in the context of tourism development[J]. Journal of Natural Resources, 2020, 35(7):1586-1601.]
[24]
喻忠磊, 杨新军, 杨涛.乡村农户适应旅游发展的模式及影响机制——以秦岭金丝峡景区为例[J]. 地理学报, 2013, 68(8):1143-1156. [Yu Zhonglei, Yang Xinjun, Yang Tao. Exploring conditions, determinants and mechanisms of rural households' adaptability to tourism development: A case study of Jinsixia in Qinling Mountains[J]. Acta Geographica Sinica, 2013, 68(8):1143-1156.]
[25]
Dobler-Morales C, Lorenzen M, Orozco-Ramírez Q. Beyond a generalized deagrarianization: Livelihood hetero-geneity and its determinants in the Mixteca Alta, Mexico[J]. World Development, 2022, 160:106074. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2022.106074.
[26]
李小云, 董强, 饶小龙, 等. 农户脆弱性分析方法及其本土化应用[J]. 中国农村经济, 2007(4):32-39. [Li Xiaoyun, Dong Qiang, Rao Xiaolong, et al. Farmers' vulnerability analysis method and its localization applica-tion[J]. Chinese Rural Economy, 2007(4):32-39.]
[27]
DFID. Sustainable Livelihoods Guidance Sheets[R]. London: Department for International Development, 1999:68-125.
[28]
Pandey R, Kumar P, Archie K M, et al. Climate change adaptation in the Western-Himalayas: Household level perspectives on impacts and barriers[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2018, 84:27-37.
[29]
Holtz G, Brugnach M, Pahl-Wostl C. Specifying "regime": A framework for defining and describing regimes in transition research[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2008, 75(5):623-643.
[30]
谢桦, 吕晓茜, 张沛.基于BP-MIV的风电调峰受阻电量影响因素贡献度分析[J]. 分布式能源, 2019, 4(6):9-14. [Xie Hua, Lv Xiaoqian, Zhang Pei. Contribution analysis of influential factors for wind power curtailment caused by lack of load-following capability based on BP-MIV[J]. Distributed Energy, 2019, 4(6):9-14.]
[31]
吴吉林, 刘水良, 周春山.乡村旅游发展背景下传统村落农户适应性研究——以张家界4 个村为例[J]. 经济地理, 2017, 37(12):232-240. [Wu Jilin, Liu Shuiliang, Zhou Chunshan. Peasant households adaptability under the background of rural tourism development in traditional villages: A case study of 4 traditional villages in Zhangjiajie[J]. Economic Geography, 2017, 37(12):232-240.]
[32]
唐红林, 陈佳, 刘倩, 等. 生态治理下石羊河流域农户生计转型路径、效应及机理[J]. 地理研究, 2023, 42(3):822-841. [Tang Honglin, Chen Jia, Liu Qian, et al. The paths, effects and mechanism of farmers' livelihood transformation in the Shiyang River Basin under the background of ecological governance geographical research[J]. Geographical Research, 2023, 42(3):822-841.]
[33]
谢舜, 周鸿.科尔曼理性选择理论评述[J]. 思想战线, 2005, 31(2):70-73. [Xie Shun, Zhou Hong. On Cole man's rational choice theory [J]. Thinking, 2005, 31(2):70-73.]
[34]
温馨, 陈佳, 邓梦麒, 等.乡村旅游开发下农户生计适应变化与影响机理研究——以延安市乡村旅游为例[J]. 中国农业资源与区划, 2020, 41(4):250-259. [Wen Xin, Chen Jia, Deng Mengqi, et al. Study on adaptation change of farmers' livelihood and the influence mechanism under tourism development: A case study of rural tourism in Yan'an City[J]. Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, 2020, 41(4):250-259.]
[35]
吴吉林, 周春山, 谢文海.传统村落农户乡村旅游适应性评价与影响因素研究——基于湘西州6 个村落的调查[J]. 地理科学, 2018, 38(5):755-763. [Wu Jilin, Zhou Chunshan, Xie Wenhai. The influencing factors and evaluation of farmer's adaptability towards rural tourism in traditional village: Based on the survey of 6 villages in Xiangxi Prefecture, Hunan[J]. Scientia Geographica Sinica, 2018, 38(5):755-763.]